Supreme Stakes Trends & Tips – Should Punters Back Happy Power? – Sportslens.com
Another Goodwood summertime meeting draws to a close, but what about Supreme Stakes trends and tips for Sunday’s feature Group 3? We’ve got all the stats covered, so find out if SportsLens experts think favourite HAPPY POWER can win this race for a second time.
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When & where is the 2022 Supreme Stakes?
The Group 3 Supreme Stakes is a 7f race open to horses aged three and up at Goodwood held on the last Sunday in August.
📅 Date: Sunday, 28th August 2022
🏇 Racecourse: Goodwood
💰 Winner: £45,368
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
Does Happy Power fit Supreme Stakes trends or not?
King Power Racing’s HAPPY POWER won this race two years ago, so the popular grey trained by Andrew Balding bids to regain his crown. Connections decided to run the now six-year-old son of Dark Angel in the Celebration Mile at this meeting last year.
Happy Power tops official ratings for the Supreme Stakes on a mark of 110. That’s the minimum that half of the last 12 winners of this ran off. He does concede 5lb weight for age to a couple of three-year-olds in this attempt to reclaim his title.
It’s an ease in grade for Happy Power who contested the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at the Glorious meeting when last in action. He ran a close-up and fine fourth behind higher rated rivals who finished 1-2 in the City Of York at the Ebor Festival next time out.
King Power & Balding Runner Ticks Plenty of Boxes
As Happy Power also had the re-opposing Ever Given in-behind him that day and now meets that re-opposing rival off 2lb better terms, he should confirm form. Six of his eight career wins have come over the 7f trip of the Supreme Stakes as well.
Every recent horse to be successful here had scored at the distance. Of the last dozen, 10 were previous winners of at least one outing in the season and Happy Power scored a Listed victory in the King Richard III Stakes at Leicester races back in April.
He also fits the bill as a previous Group winner, something seven of the last 12 Supreme Stakes winners managed. With plenty of course experience under his belt and William Buick taking the ride for the first time, Happy Power makes plenty of appeal at 15/8 with BetUK to win this again.
Double Or Bubble Primed for Bold Bid
Chris Wall has the audacious aim of sending DOUBLE OR BUBBLE all the way to Japan for a crack at the Sprinters Stakes on 2 October. This five-year-old Exceed And Excel mare is a winner in the grade this season but only over 6f.
Double Or Bubble chased home Toro Strike in the Supreme Stakes 12 months ago but her only victories over this trip have been a maiden and in handicaps. Her best form, which includes the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket races in April on reappearance and when fifth in the July Cup 50 days ago, has come at shorter trips.
That break is a big negative for Double Or Bubble in terms of the stats here, as all but one of the 12 most recent Supreme Stakes winners last raced within 43 days. Now in calmer waters, she still rates a big danger to Happy Power at 2/1 with BetUK but doesn’t benefit from the usual sex allowance, which is offset by a penalty here.
3yo Course Winners Ever Given & I’m A Gambler Must Step Up
As the youngest in the Supreme Stakes line-up, the aforementioned EVER GIVEN and I’m A Gambler should be open to more progress. The problem with the former is, despite a Listed victory over subsequent dual Group 3 scorer Oscula at Epsom Downs races during the Derby Festival, is he’s already had a crack at Happy Power.
Ever Given, trained by Hugo Palmer, had no extra in the Lennox so, even though this is easier, he has plenty to find. I’M A GAMBLER, meanwhile, could now step out of handicap company for the first time for Charlie and Mark Johnston.
The yard recently surpassed 5,000 winners in Britain but won’t rest on their laurels after such an achievement. A race like the Supreme Stakes demands more than I’m A Gambler’s revised rating of 103 with all but one of the last dozen winners being classier.
This No Nay Never gelding has also been declared to run in two different Goodwood races over the weekend. It’s not clear whether he stays handicapping or tries a Pattern race, so caution is advised.
Misty Grey Better on the All-Weather
Tom Dascombe saddles MISTY GREY here in a Group contest for the first time in just over three years. A five-year-old Dark Angel gelding, most of his exploits have been on the All-Weather since he was highly tried as a juvenile.
In fact, all five of Misty Grey’s career wins have come on an artificial surface with four of those at Wolverhampton races, so he’s clearly not so good on the turf. That alone should mean punters steer clear of the Chester City Plate second whose rating is rather misleading.
Completing the Supreme Stakes field this year is SUNSET BAY. Ed Walker’s four-year-old filly has an official rating of 91 and that puts her well behind the others. Her last win came in a Sandown handicap off 80 in July last year.
This is definitely a mountain for Sunset Bay to climb and it’s hard to see her getting involved. Prize money goes down to sixth, though, so she’s guaranteed something just for turning up.
Supreme Stakes Tips – The Verdict & 1-2-3
Quite simply, if the same HAPPY POWER who ran a close fourth in the Lennox in a higher grade over course and distance shows up, he wins this hands down. Clear second best is DOUBLE OR BUBBLE, who looks set for the same spot as last year.
The two three-year-olds, EVER GIVEN and I’M A GAMBLER, can battle it out to make the frame. With the uncertainty about the latter’s participation after being double entered across the meeting and weekend, the former gets the nod for third.
- HAPPY POWER @ 15/8 with BetUK
- DOUBLE OR BUBBLE @ 2/1 with BetUK
- EVER GIVEN @ 5/1 with BetUK
Key Supreme Stakes Trends & Stats
- 12/12 – previous winners at 7f
- 12/12 – at least 3 previous Flat wins
- 11/12 – last ran within 43 days
- 11/12 – at least 3 previous runs over 7f
- 10/12 – previous winners that season
- 10/12 – at least 4 previous runs in the season
- 9/12 – top three in the betting
- 8/12 – previous Goodwood runners
- 8/12 – age four and up
- 7/12 – previous winners of a Group race
- 4/12 – previous Goodwood winners
- 4/12 – won on their last start
DID YOU KNOW?: All but one of the last 12 Supreme Stakes winners had an official rating of at least 105. Six of those had a mark of 110+ as well. Punters receive £30 in free bets with BetUK to use on the race when you bet £10 on our top tip.
2022 Supreme Stakes Betting & Runners
There are just the five Celebration Mile runners in this Group 2 event this year. Here are the latest odds and betting:
All odds correct as of 09:00 BST on Sunday, 28 August and subject to change
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Recent Supreme Stakes Winners
- 2021 – TORO STRIKE
- 2020 – HAPPY POWER
- 2019 – SUEDOIS
- 2018 – ANNA NERIUM
- 2017 – DUTCH CONNECTION
- 2016 – OPAL TIARA
- 2015 – SO BELOVED
- 2014 – ANSGAR
Watch The 2021 Supreme Stakes Again
TORO STRIKE brought up our 100th winner of the season today in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes! 💥 A fantastic effort from the whole team here at Musley Bank! 👏💫 Here’s to the next century…@RacingTV #century #winners #getin pic.twitter.com/qe3skZbPts
— Richard Fahey (@RichardFahey) August 29, 2021
Goodwood Race Times and Schedule: Sunday, 28th August 2022
- 1:15 – William Hill EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (EBF Restricted Race Qual) (GBB) Cl4 (2yo) 1m RTV
- 1:50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV / RTV
- 2:25 – William Hill Selling Stakes Cl3 (3yo) 1m3f ITV / RTV
- 3:00- William Hill Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m2f ITV / RTV
- 3:35 – Weatherbys Stallion Book Supreme Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV / RTV
- 4:10 – City Of Chichester Fillies’ Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 1m4f RTV
- 4:45 – Gay Kindersley Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Cl5 (4yo+ 0-70) 1m1f RTV
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