New York takes center stage in fight for control of the House – POLITICO
Zimmerman, a longtime DNC member who boasts endorsements from Hillary Clinton and from Israel, who once held the seat, is running for Suozzi’s district. That primary also includes Josh Lafazan, a Nassau County legislator with backing from Suozzi and a big-spending super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry. Republicans are on track to nominate George Santos, a financier with a rare profile who says Democrats will have a hard time tagging him as a typical Republican.
“I’m a free thinker,” he said during an interview outside an Indian Independence Day event in Queens. “I’m Latino, I’m gay, I’m Jewish. I do what I want. I don’t fit in the boxes that they want me to fit in.”
Santos lost to Suozzi in 2020 but came closer than other GOP candidates have in recent years. He has taken pointed steps to connect with diverse communities in the district: At an “India Day” celebration earlier this month, attendees stopped him to shake his hand or ask for pictures.
“I might be probably one of your most unique Republicans in the House come 2023,” Santos said.
Still, Democrats say they will have no problem yoking him to extreme elements in the party, noting that he attended pro-Trump rallies in D.C. around Jan. 6 and that, in 2020, he told The Island Now he favored a federal abortion ban. (In an interview with POLITICO, he said he would not support a ban and was noncommittal about whether he would back Trump should he run in 2024.)
In Rice’s district, Republicans have coalesced around Hempstead Councilman Anthony D’Esposito, a former NYPD officer. The seat strongly favors Democrats but could be a trouble spot if Biden’s numbers don’t recover significantly.
If that happens, Republicans are gleefully predicting they could net several seats without losing any of their incumbents.
“I believe that there will be at least 10 to 12 if not more Republicans in the New York congressional delegation come January,” said Rep. Lee Zeldin, who vacated his Long Island seat to run for governor.
Upstate battlegrounds
The other trouble spot for Democrats lies in the Hudson Valley, which stretches from the outskirts of the city into the deep Upstate. The court-imposed map drew three districts there that Biden carried by 10 points or less.
The region is also home to the latest competitive special election of the midterms because Democrat Antonio Delgado left his seat vacant to serve as lieutenant governor. Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro are locked in a fierce battle to serve out the remainder of his term in a Tuesday race that could break either way.
Yet no matter who wins the special, Molinaro and Ryan are both running for full terms — but in different districts, thanks to another quirk of the state’s redistricting. Molinaro, the Dutchess County Executive and a long sought-after GOP congressional recruit, will face either farmer Jamie Cheney or attorney Josh Riley in what is likely to be the most competitive seat in the state this fall.
Ryan, meanwhile, will take on Republican state Assemblymember Colin Schmitt in a different district to the south, which Biden would have carried by 9 points.
Democrats in those races have campaigned heavily on abortion access — but in a sign of the times, they are also willing to be critical of Biden.
At a campaign event in Woodstock, Riley said he was outraged that the Biden administration had given licenses to China to manufacture new battery technologies that were developed with U.S. taxpayer funds.
“It pisses me off to no end that we’re not creating those jobs here in the United States and here in Upstate New York,” he said. “I have a lot of concerns about the Biden administration allowing that.”
In an interview, Ryan declined to say whether he would support Biden if he ran in 2024 and said, as an Army veteran, he had issues with the Afghanistan withdrawal. But he also strongly praised Biden’s policy agenda, from the infrastructure bill to the Inflation Reduction Act.
In a final Hudson Valley matchup, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, will have to defend a seat Biden won by 10 points. He faces a spirited primary challenge from progressive state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi and the winner of that contest will likely face Republican Michael Lawler, another state lawmaker who ousted a Democratic incumbent in 2020.
National Republicans have already booked TV air time in Maloney’s district, relishing the chance to distract the leader of House Democrats’ campaign arm with his own reelection.
In an interview, Maloney said he was confident about winning his primary. Describing his campaign situation as putting him in a “player-coach” role, he said his record of winning tough general election contests was why his colleagues trusted him to lead the DCCC.
“I didn’t win five races as a gay guy in a Trump district by hoping for the best or taking things for granted,” he said. “We’re going to work hard, we assume it will be competitive, but we’re going to win.”
Maloney insisted GOP plans for big New York gains were overblown, especially given the competitive nature of the special election for Delgado’s seat and the uproar over abortion rights.
“The Republicans have been overconfident and cocky. And the whole world has changed in the last two months,” he said, adding: “They have an assumption that there will be a backlash or a wave. But I think they know that’s slipping away every day.”
Democrats do have one strong potential flip target in the state: the redrawn seat of retiring Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.). Republicans have a primary there that will help determine whether or not they can win that seat, which Biden would have won by 8 points in 2020.
Still, Republican outside groups are flush with cash and are determined to spend a chunk of it on offense in New York. That means Democrats could have to devote precious resources to shore up targeted districts that they would rather redirect elsewhere — and likely would have directed elsewhere under Democrats’ original redistricting map.
“New York Democrats overplayed their hand,” said Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House GOP super PAC. “Some of the best pickup opportunities nationwide are in New York and we will be seriously contesting races all over the state in a significant way.”