NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, May 10): Increased Action for Jaxson Hayes – Fantasy Labs
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
What does Russell Westbrook have to do to get priced above $11,000 on DraftKings? The man has posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.26 over his past 10 games – including three games with at least 81.0 DraftKings points in his past four – yet his salary never seems to budge. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99% for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hawks, which makes him one of the easiest plays on the slate.
Westbrook carries even more upside than usual on Monday with Bradley Beal out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.7% and his assist rate by +4.6% with Beal off the court, both of which rank first on the team.
Value
Sticking with the Wizards, Ish Smith should see a boost in playing time with Beal out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a strong value at just $3,300, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.44 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Blazers. They’re implied for 126.25 points vs. the Rockets, who are playing without most of their key players at this point in the season. There are some blowout concerns in this contest, but Damian Lillard has excellent upside if this game stays competitive. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.17 is one of the top marks at the position, and his $9,500 salary on FanDuel is very reasonable.
Trae Young and the Hawks are also in a great spot on Monday. Their implied team total of 122.25 ranks second on the slate, and Young has increased his production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
We’re still waiting on an official injury report for the Cavaliers, but expect them to be shorthanded vs. the Pacers. It seems unlikely that Darius Garland will play again this season, and Kevin Love could be shut down at any moment. He played 27 minutes Sunday vs. the Mavericks, so I think it’s unlikely he suits up on the second leg of a back-to-back.
That would leave Collin Sexton as the last man standing. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% and assist rate by +6.5% with Garland, Love and Andre Drummond off the court this season, so he can do some damage against a porous Pacers’ defense on Monday. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
Grayson Allen will miss his third straight game for the Grizzlies, and Dillon Brooks has been one of the primary beneficiaries from his absence. He’s logged at least 35.8 minutes in each of his past two games, and Brooks has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s the type of player who can take advantage of a few additional minutes.
Fast Break
Lonnie Walker has started the past two games for the Spurs, and he’s responded with at least 22.25 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s seen a slight price increase for tonight’s matchup vs. the Bucks, but he remains one of the best value options at the position. He’s currently projected for 31.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01.
Caris LeVert has been doing work for the shorthanded Pacers recently, and there’s a chance they could be without Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdon once again on Monday. Both players are currently questionable, so make sure to monitor their statuses using the Labs Insiders tool. If Brogdon in particular is ruled out, LeVert can be treated as an elite option at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
There aren’t a ton of high-priced options to consider at small forward on Monday, with only two players possessing a salary above $6,300 on FanDuel. With that in mind, Kyle Anderson stands out as one of the better options at just $5,900. He’s averaged a strong 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 30.8 minutes in three of his past four games. Anderson also owns a nice matchup vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61.
Value
Rudy Gay continues to get buckets for the Spurs. He’s not playing a ton of minutes – he’s currently projected for just 22.0 minutes in our NBA Models – but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 26.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
The Jazz are still playing without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, which means Joe Ingles should continue to start. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.8% and his assist rate by +7.9% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. He’s an appealing option across the industry.
Norman Powell is a cheaper way to get some exposure to the Blazers’ slate-high implied team total on Monday. His price tag has decreased by $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $5,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. He hasn’t displayed a ton of upside recently, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is another member of the Pacers who would benefit if Brogdon and Lamb are ultimately ruled out. He’s probably the closest facsimile to Nikola Jokic, and he’s put his full skill set on display with three games of at least 74.25 DraftKings points in his past five contests. Sabonis is definitely a bit pricy across the industry, but that doesn’t matter so much on a slate with plenty of value and not a ton of studs. He should be able to have his way vs. the Cavaliers’ interior defense, so I have no problem paying up for him if the Pacers are shorthanded again.
Value
Dean Wade has been playing a ton of minutes for the Cavaliers recently, and he could take on an even larger workload depending on their injury report on Monday. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a steal at just $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. The Pacers also represent a strong matchup, giving Wade an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.95.
Fast Break
Davis Bertans is another potential value option at power forward. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.6% with Beal off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.77 FanDuel points per minute. That number doesn’t jump off the page, but it should be more than enough to pay off his current salary across the industry.
The Pelicans are also dealing with some key injuries at the moment. Zion Williamson is not expected to play again this season, and Brandon Ingram is also expected to miss Monday’s contest vs. the Grizzlies. That opens the door for James Johnson to see a few additional minutes, and Johnson is always an appealing fantasy option when he’s going to see significant playing time. He’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season and is capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is an interesting buy-low candidate on FanDuel vs. the Warriors. He’s seen a price decrease of $600 over the past month, and his current $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. Gobert has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.97 with a comparable salary, and his matchup with the Warriors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24.
Value
Jaxson Hayes is comically underpriced at $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s dominated in his past two games without Williamson and Ingram, scoring at least 41.0 DraftKings points in both contests, and he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute on the season. He has the potential for another huge game if he hits his ceiling, but he should be able to return value even if he hits his floor vs. the Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen has struggled recently, but he owns arguably the best matchup at the position vs. the Pacers. They’ve been a fantasy goldmine recently, and they’ve been miserable against opposing centers all season. Allen’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 is the top mark at the position on DraftKings, so he’s a strong bounce-back candidate.
Clint Capela is another potential buy-low option on FanDuel. He’s seen an even larger price decrease than Gobert over the past month, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. His matchup vs. the Wizards is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54.
Photo Credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Jaxson Hayes