NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, May 7): It’s Mo Bamba SZN – Fantasy Labs
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Hornets were demolished Thursday by the Bulls, but today’s game vs. the Magic should be more competitive. They’re actually favored by 7.5 points despite being without Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward, Cody Martin and Miles Bridges. Terry Rozier has the potential for a huge game with all of those players out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.3% with all four players off the court this season, and he posted a usage rate of 30.7% in his last contest. The Magic are also an excellent matchup, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Elfrid Payton has seen a significant decrease in playing time since the Knicks acquired Derrick Rose, but he remains very productive on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an excellent mark considering his salary. He should see a few additional minutes on Friday with Immanuel Quickley and Alec Burks both expected to sit, which makes him an interesting punt play.
Fast Break
The Heat are going to be an important team to monitor heading into lineup lock. Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are both listed as questionable, and their absences would open up a bunch of usage for the rest of the roster. Kendrick Nunn is someone who would become an interesting option in that situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.1% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.92 DKFP per minute. He’s a particularly nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates on Butler, Herro, and the rest of today’s players.
The 76ers own one of the best matchups of the day. They’re taking on the Pelicans, and their implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate. Ben Simmons also owns an excellent individual matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.77 on FanDuel, and he could be looking at a larger workload than usual. Joel Embiid is currently questionable, and the offense would flow through Simmons if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Delon Wright has scored at least 55.0 DKFP in back-to-back games, and his play has surprisingly kept the Kings in the hunt for a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament. He should be looking at another expanded workload vs. the Spurs on Friday. De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton remain out of the lineup, and Harrison Barnes is currently doubtful. Wright has thrived with all three players off the court this season, averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. His price tag has come up a bit, but he should still be able to return value if Barnes is ultimately ruled out.
Value
I have no idea how the Rockets are going to field a lineup tonight. John Wall has been shut down for the season, and Kevin Porter Jr. has already been ruled out with an ankle injury. D.J. Wilson and Avery Bradley have also been ruled out, while Christian Wood, Jae’Sean Tate, Kelly Olynyk, D.J. Augustin, and Danuel House are all either questionable or doubtful. Basically, their entire roster is on the injury report.
DaQuan Jeffries is one player who should definitely be in the lineup, and he could be asked to play huge minutes. He’s coming off nearly 41 minutes in his last game, and he’s scored at least 19.5 DKFP in three straight games. You’ll take that kind of production at $3,300 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Alex Caruso stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Lakers remain without LeBron James and Dennis Schroder, and Caruso has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games.
Terence Davis is a nice value option on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he’s seen a solid increase in playing time given all their injuries of late. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Today’s slate has plenty of value, which means we’re going to need to find some studs as well. Luka Doncic stands out as one of the best options, particularly on DraftKings since you can roster him at small forward. Doncic has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he could exceed that mark vs. the Cavaliers. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber for the second straight game.
Value
Rudy Gay is coming off a dismal performance in his last contest, finishing with just 1.25 DraftKings points over 6.8 minutes. That said, he did score at least 35.25 DraftKings points in each of his two previous games. That makes him a nice bounce-back option in a great matchup vs. the Kings. They’ve been the worst team in the league this season in terms of defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
As someone who was a part of an America East basketball program – I don’t care what you say, the pep band definitely counts – I am contractually obligated to mention Anthony Lamb. The former two-time America East Player of the Year got the chance to play big minutes for the Rockets on Wednesday, and he responded with 32 FanDuel points over 35.8 minutes. He remains affordable across the industry, so he would be an appealing punt play if the Rockets ultimately rule out some of their questionable players.
Kyle Kuzma is coming off 45.0 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he should serve as the Lakers’ No. 2 offensive option behind Anthony Davis in a game with playoff implications vs. the Blazers. He’s currently projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Power Forward
Stud
It feels odd to pay up for Jayson Tatum at $10,500 on DraftKings when Giannis Antetokounmpo is only $400 more expensive, but I can’t envision a scenario where the Bucks don’t blow the Rockets out of the water. They’re currently favored by 16.5 points, and that number could increase if some of the questionable players like Wood and Tate are ultimately ruled out. That makes Giannis a bit too risky for me.
Tatum has also been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s increased his production to 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark at the position on today’s slate. He should continue to benefit from the absence of Jaylen Brown, who has been ruled out for the second straight game with a sprained ankle. He led the team with a 31.1% usage rate in their last contest, and he’s increased his usage rate by +4.3% with Brown off the court this season.
Value
Moe Wagner should continue to see significant playing time for the Magic given all the injuries in their frontcourt. Wendell Carter Jr. will miss his second straight game, and Otto Porter Jr., Chuma Okeke, James Ennis and Terrence Ross also remain sidelined. Wagner has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 29.8 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s an excellent value at just $4,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Ignas Brazdeikis is the preferred value option for the Magic. He just recently joined the squad, but he’s logged at least 30.4 minutes in his first two games with the team. That’s a ton of playing time for someone who’s priced at the absolute minimum. He’s currently projected for 26.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.75 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Marvin Bagley has increased his production to 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to play a big role for the shorthanded Kings. He’s way too cheap at $5,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is in a difficult spot Friday vs. the Jazz, but he’s basically matchup-proof at this point. In fact, the matchup vs. the Jazz could actually benefit him. The only thing that has stopped Jokic recently has been a lack of playing time in blowouts, and this matchup is expected to be competitive. Jokic has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a full complement of minutes on Friday.
Value
Mo Bamba is a bit more expensive than the typical “value” option, but he is one of the strongest plays on the slate on DraftKings. He’s been dominant on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which has allowed him to provide excellent fantasy value despite splitting time with Carter. He didn’t disappoint with WCJ out of the lineup in his last game, racking up 53.75 DKFP over 30.8 minutes, and he should see most of the center minutes again on Friday.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes is another member of the Kings who deserves consideration. He’s logged at least 30.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and Holmes has averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Spurs given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62.
Bam Adebayo has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel, yet his salary has remained stagnant. His current $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, which makes him a strong option in a plus matchup vs. the Timberwolves. He would also be one of the primary beneficiaries if Butler or Herro is unable to suit up.
Photo Credit: Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Mo Bamba