Game day preview | Northwestern at Illinois; 2:30 p.m., BTN – Champaign/Urbana News-Gazette
THREE BIG STORYLINES
Something to play for
Illinois and Northwestern are rivals in the sense that they’re the two Big Ten teams in the state of Illinois and play in one of the many Big Ten trophy games. The Land of Lincoln Trophy, which replaced the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk, has had a semi-permanent home in Evanston, with the Wildcats winning the last six rivalry games and 14 of the last 20. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 13-6 in the rivalry overall if you factor in his going 2-2 as a linebacker for the Wildcats in the ‘90s and his 11-4 record so far as their coach. That made the messaging for this game rather direct for Illinois coach Bret Bielema.
“We’ve always known Northwestern was going to be the last game of this season,” Bielema said. “We knew it was a trophy game, so there have been things in play before this week gets here to kind of lay the foundation of what that’s going to be. … I think it’s more about they’ve won the last six. This is a Big Ten West divisional opponent and it’s the last game of the year and the last opportunity for us to be guaranteed to be all together. That’s really the message it needs to be.”
Back in the mix
Isaiah Gay was a constant presence in the Iowa backfield last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. The senior outside linebacker finished the game with 51/2 tackles for loss. It left the Nashville, N.C., native just one-half tackle for loss away from tying the program record set by Jeff Weiss in 1998 against Middle Tennessee State and matched by Jake Hansen in 2018 against Kent State. Gay also had a career-high nine tackles. Certainly notable given he played his way out of the starting lineup at one point this season.
“Sort of about midway through the year, obviously, he was moved down the depth chart for a time, and then he really honed in on the basics of playing the position, the fundamentals of playing the position and staying within the framework of the scheme,” Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters said. “Since he’s been doing that and focusing on his job, he’s really flourished. He’s making the plays that he’s supposed to make and taking advantage of being in the right place at the right time and allowing his athleticism to take over when he gets those one-on-one matchups.”
Not helping themselves
Illinois set season-highs with 10 penalties and 96 penalty yards en route to a 10-point loss at Iowa. The most avoidable were concurrent unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on Kendall Smith and Michael Marchese, but the costliest came on offense. The Illinois offense, which finished the game with only 312 yards of total offense, committed five of the 10 penalties.
Four of them were on offensive linemen, including a tripping call on Blake Jeresaty and holding calls on Jack Badovinac and Julian Pearl for 35 total negative yards.
“When we get into extreme yardage situations because of penalties, it’s really hurt us in the last three or four games,” Illinois offensive coordinator Tony Petersen said. “It’s tough to recover from those unless you have some special plays. … We’ve gotten into some extreme penalty situations like first-and-20, first-and-25, and that’s just tough. We’ve just got to keep preaching penalties. Coach B. talks all the time about how you lose football games, and it’s mental errors, turnovers and penalties, and we’ve had too many penalties.”
TWO KEY MATCHUPS
Illinois run game vs.
Northwestern run defense
Inconsistent is probably the best adjective for the Illinois rushing offense this season. The Illini have been stymied by two of the Big Ten’s top-three run defenses — Wisconsin (26 yards) and Iowa (64 yards) — but rushed for 185 yards against Minnesota, which is a close third to the Hawkeyes, and set a season-high with 357 yards against a Penn State run defense that’s still in the top 35 nationally after getting gouged like that. Northwestern ranks last in the Big Ten and 118th nationally out of 130 teams in rushing defense, allowing 214.1 yards per game. Illinois running back Chase Brown should have a field day.
”The Lads” vs.
Northwestern’s special teams
Special teams was a difference-maker at Iowa. The Hawkeyes got four field goals from Caleb Shudak and a 100-yard kick return from Charlie Jones. Illinois was able to hang with the former when James McCourt drilled three field goals of his own, but there was no big return for Donny Navarro. The junior has returned just three kickoffs all season long. So the special teams advantage for Illinois will center on “The Lads.” McCourt has made all 21 of his PATs and 14 of 19 field goals, while Blake Hayes is averaging 45.2 yards per punt and has put 31 of 65 inside the 20-yard line. Northwestern kicker Charlie Kuhbander is 20 of 20 on PATs, but just 6 of 12 on field goals, and punter Derek Adams is averaging 42 yards per punt with just 16 of 51 inside the 20. Advantage: Illini.
ONE STAT THAT MATTERS
Illinois safety Kerby Joseph has the rare two-fer that puts the Orlando, Fla., native in exclusive company this season. Company of one, actually. Joseph is tied for first nationally with six other players with five interceptions in 2021, joining that group after picking off Iowa’s Alex Padilla last week in Iowa City, Iowa. Where Joseph separates himself, however, is that he’s the only one of those six players that’s also in the top two in fumble recoveries. Joseph is tied for second nationally with 15 other players with three fumble recoveries. He’s trailing the national leader, Washington State cornerback Jaylen Watson, by just one.
ILLINOIS WILL
WIN IF …
… the offense can, after week over week growth by the defense, show some of the same. The Illini offense has left the defense hanging out to dry on multiple occasions this season. Last week’s loss at Iowa was just the latest example. Answering maybe even just one of the Hawkeyes’ four field goals forced by a steady defensive performance with a touchdown could have turned the tide in Iowa City. Offensive success for Illinois starts with running the football. If the Illini can unleash Chase Brown effectively and get some complementary play from quarterback Brandon Peters and the receiving corps, they can end the regular season on a high note.
NORTHWESTERN WILL WIN IF …
… it can get even average play from the quarterback position. That’s really all the Wildcats need. Their best teams have been relied on more at that spot (see: Peyton Ramsey, Clayton Thorson), but even a good Northwestern team only needs a game manager. The Wildcats have tried Ryan Hilinski, Hunter Johnson and Andrew Marty at quarterback this season. All three have the same number of touchdowns as interceptions and rarely stretch the field vertically. But all it takes is one game like Marty had in 2019 as Northwestern’s fourth-stringer (a run threat, three total touchdowns) to extend the Wildcats’ rivalry winning streak.
THE N-G’s PICK:
Illinois 20, Northwestern 17
The Illini’s Land of Lincoln Trophy game losing streak — now at six consecutive defeats to the Wildcats — should end Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Illinois is a 61/2-point favorite at home, and Northwestern is really struggling this season with a nondescript offense and a defense that doesn’t pack quite the same punch as in previous years. Then comes the real question: Will five wins be enough to get the Illini into one of the numerous (seemingly endless) bowl games if there aren’t enough six-win teams? (N-G prediction record: 8-3).