Breaking down Liberty’s season opener at Southern Miss – Lynchburg News and Advance

Liberty at Southern Miss

• Where: M.M. Roberts Stadium (36,000), Hattiesburg, Mississippi
• When: 7 p.m.
• Streaming: ESPN+
• 2021 Records: Liberty 8-5. Southern Miss 3-9, 2-6 Conference USA.
• Last time out: Liberty beat Eastern Michigan 56-20 in the LendingTree Bowl on Dec. 18, 2021; Southern Miss beat FIU 37-17 on Nov. 27, 2021.
• Series: Liberty leads 1-0
• Last meeting: Liberty defeated Southern Miss 56-38 on Oct. 24, 2020, at Williams Stadium.
• Latest line: Liberty by 3.5
• Over/Under: 50
• Weather Underground forecast: 80 degrees, scattered thunderstorms clearing soon after, 40 percent chance of precipitation, 81 percent humidity, 5 mph winds SSW, sunset at 8:20 p.m.

THE MATCHUP TO WATCH

Liberty’s revamped offensive line vs. Southern Miss’ transfer-laden defensive front: Both programs invested heavily in the transfer portal during the past offseason. Liberty added four veteran offensive linemen in Naasir Watkins (Kentucky), Cam Reddy (Colorado State), X’Zauvea Gadlin (Tulsa) and Reggie Young (Iowa Central Community College) to help solidify a unit that struggled in 2021. The Flames surrendered 52 sacks (all not on the offensive line’s shoulders), so upgrading with veterans to add to longtime linemen Brendan Schlittler, Jacob Bodden, Cooper McCaw and John Kourtis should provide some stability. And the line seems to be rejuvenated under new position coach Chris Klenakis, who has brought an old-school, blue-collar, lunch-pail carrying mentality to the group. The first task for the revamped line will be blocking a Southern Miss defensive front that wasn’t bad all in 2021. The Golden Eagles recorded 23 sacks last season, and they added edge rusher Jalil Clemons (Memphis) and tackles Quentin Bivens (Ole Miss), Armondous Cooley (Mississippi State) and Jalen Williams (Arkansas) through the transfer portal. That gives Southern Miss a viable rotation up front to keep fresh bodies on the field and generate consistent pushes up front. It will be up to whichever new-look line holds up the best to dictate which team wins this game. In Liberty’s case, the offensive line was given a sneak peek at how Southern Miss will bring pressure. That could be all the edge that is needed to push the Flames over the top.

KEEP AN EYE ON THESE FLAMES

Charlie Brewer, quarterback: You didn’t need to be told to keep an eye on Brewer. You already were going to intently watch the new signal caller for the Flames. Brewer has made 42 career starts in his previous stops at Baylor and Utah, and this game will be his 43rd start and first in a Liberty uniform. Everyone will want to see if he can keep the Liberty offense rolling like it did in 2020 and 2021 with Malik Willis at quarterback. If Brewer can come close to his production from the 2019 season, he will be on par with how Willis played in 2020, and that is what excites the Liberty coaching staff. Brewer has the ability to run, but his main attribute comes in his ability to make pre-snap reads and deliver passes in tight windows. He can pick apart defenses and make anticipation throws, which should allow a deeper, healthier wide receiver corps to thrive. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Brewer keep it on designed runs in the RPO attack, but his priority is slinging it around.

• Chris Megginson, cornerback: Megginson has grown tremendously playing at field cornerback over the past two seasons, and he will primarily play on that side with Daijahn Anthony lining up at boundary. Megginson’s strengths are his length and speed, which allow him to keep up with the speedier receivers and contend for 50-50 balls. Those attributes will be needed whenever the Lynchburg native is lined up across from Southern Miss wide receiver Jason Brownlee. Brownlee will be the primary option in the Southern Miss passing attack, so keeping him contained is a focal point in the Flames’ defensive scheme. Megginson has seven pass breakups and one interception over the past two seasons, and his interception numbers will need to go up if he is to become a lockdown corner.

KEEP AN EYE ON THESE GOLDEN EAGLES

Jason Brownlee, wide receiver: The 6-foot-3 Brownlee has been the receiving option for Southern Miss over the past two seasons. He has racked up 80 catches for 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns in the span, and his big-play ability has shown up frequently on the highlight reels. Liberty fans will remember a catch Brownlee made down the right sideline over Emanuel Dabney that appeared the next Monday on ESPN’s You Got Mossed segment. Brownlee will need to find ways to get open so redshirt freshman quarterback Ty Keyes can connect with him and get into a rhythm. If Brownlee is contained, that means Keyes will likely be on the run as Liberty’s defensive line tries to keep him contained and secure sacks.

• Daylen Gill, linebacker: With projected starter Hayes Maples out, Gill appears ready to take over at linebacker. While there are others like Santrell Latham and Swayze Bozeman who can start, Gill makes the most sense as an impact player who can help change the game. The Ole Miss transfer didn’t play much in two seasons with the Rebels (14 solo tackles and nine assisted stops), but the 5-foot-11, 225-pound senior has the skills to be active in the run game and help in the box. That type of production is needed in order to make an opposing team one-dimensional, which Southern Miss wants to do against Liberty.

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH

1. Is this Brewer’s team?

Liberty has been blessed over the past 10 seasons with quarterbacks who took ownership of the team. From Josh Woodrum to Buckshot Calvert to Malik Willis, signal callers have been the leaders of the Flames. Utah transfer Charlie Brewer is in his lone season with the program and enters the season as the starter. The first game will dictate how much Brewer’s teammates have bought into his leadership, which has been described more as lead by example than vocal leadership, and if they rally around him. Brewer’s previous stops – 39 starts at Baylor and three more at Utah – give him the experience to know how to make sure his teammates are in the right spots in certain situations.

2. How improved is the offensive line?

Brewer isn’t as mobile as Willis. That is a fact. Willis, despite his theatrics on any given Saturday, was unable to avoid every pass rusher last season. He was sacked 52 times over 13 games. That impacted the running game, since Liberty had to play from behind the chains more often than not. The Flames made a big investment in the offensive line over the offseason. New position coach Chris Klenankis has added transfers such as Naasir Watkins (Kentucky), Cam Reddy (Colorado State) and X’Zauvea Gadlin (Tulsa) to the starting lineup. Those three veterans have meshed well with returners Jacob Bodden, Brendan Schlittler and Cooper McCaw to provide a new-look unit that wants to avoid last season’s struggles.

3. Can the Southern Miss quarterback avoid the injury bug?

Eleven different players attempted a pass for Southern Miss last season. That isn’t an exaggeration. Injuries cut short the seasons for Ty Keyes, Jake Lange and Trey Lowe, which meant the offense had to operate with the running back taking the direct snap and running it with a mix of passes. That led to an offensive production that Southern Miss coach Will Hall called “consistently pathetic.” Keyes has been tabbed the starter for this matchup with Liberty. If he can stay healthy while utilizing his mobility outside of the pocket, that should open up opportunities for the offense to stay on the field and become a balanced threat.

4. Which transfers will shine?

Both teams loaded up on transfers since the end of the 2021 season. Liberty added to its offensive line, certain skill positions and on all three levels on the defensive side. Southern Miss was a bit more aggressive with the addition of 11 transfers. Most of those new faces are on the defensive side, with nine of the Golden Eagles’ 11 projected starters likely being transfers from programs such as Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Memphis. The Flames are expected to start up to six transfers (five on offense and one on defense), and a seventh will come in the form of junior college transfer Mike Smith Jr. at Mike linebacker. The team that wins will likely have significant contributions come from players who were wearing different jerseys last season.

5. Which defense will break first?

Both teams’ defenses get overlooked when looking back at 2021. Liberty’s unit, which finished 11th nationally in total defense, was hardly mentioned because of Willis at quarterback. Southern Miss was one of the nation’s best in limiting first downs and playing tough in the red zone, but an anemic offense stole the show. Both defenses got better in the offseason, whether it was through the transfer portal or developing younger players, and will be tasked in the season opener to make plays. Season openers tend to be lower scoring as offenses try to get into a rhythm, so the defense that surrenders the first explosive play may determine who wins the game.

FLAMES’ KEYS TO THE GAME

Create takeaways

Liberty was abysmal in recovering fumbles and securing interceptions last season. The Flames recorded 11 takeaways (nine interceptions and two fumble recoveries) in 2020, a number that was one of the worst in the Bowl Subdivision. There is a chance to get off to a good start in that department this season against a mobile quarterback like Southern Miss’ Ty Keyes. Keyes likes to scramble, which makes stripping the ball a priority for the defensive linemen and linebackers. If the Flames are able to get Keyes rattled, that could lead to poor decisions being made in the passing attack and result in chances for interceptions by an improved secondary.

Contain Keyes

Speaking of Keyes, he didn’t look like a true freshman last season when he got the start at Alabama. Keyes was able to scramble around and keep plays alive against the vaunted Crimson Tide defense. He brings a game-changing ability that can easily be the difference in victories for a Group of Five program. Liberty’s defensive front will need to keep Keyes contained to the pocket and force him to become a passer. The pass rush has the depth to keep coming in waves and generate enough pressure that Liberty can drop seven into coverage to make sure Keyes doesn’t beat them through the air.

Get points from the kickers

Nick Brown was named the starting placekicker earlier this week and will handle the extra points and field goals. His task will be simple: make all of the extra points and convert on better than 80% of his field-goal attempts from within 40 yards. The second aspect has been a bit of a struggle for the Flames over the past two seasons. Liberty’s two kickers in that span, Alex Barbir and Brayden Beck, went a combined 13 of 19 on field goals from inside of 40 yards. That comes out to 68.4%, which means the Flames lost out on at least three points on nearly 12% of their possessions that reached inside the 40. That desperately needs to improve this season.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

When the Flames have the ball

Liberty has plenty of tools at its disposal on offense. Charlie Brewer is the type of quarterback who will distribute the ball to the plethora of playmakers at wide receivers. Caleb Snead, DeMario Douglas, CJ Yarbrough, Noah Frith and Khaleb Coleman have the potential to thrive in the offense. Dae Dae Hunter can be a central figure in establishing a run game that balances out the offense. That will give headaches to Southern Miss defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who has plenty of talent at defense, but the season opener may show that mixing the influx of transfers with developing talent takes time and isn’t an immediate fix.

EDGE: Liberty

When the Golden Eagles have the ball

Southern Miss has a consistent running back in Frank Gore Jr. A reliable outside weapon in Jason Brownlee. Then there is redshirt freshman quarterback Ty Keyes, who has all of three starts under his belt. There are more question marks about the Southern Miss offense than there are answers, especially how the unit will look in Will Hall’s second season and Sam Gregg’s first as offensive coordinator/offensive line coach. Liberty’s defense has a veteran group with plenty of talent on the defensive line. That group will be eager to slow down the Southern Miss running attack and make sure Keyes doesn’t get comfortable in the pocket.

EDGE: Liberty

Special teams

Liberty named Nick Brown its starting kicker earlier this week. Brown, a redshirt freshman, has never attempted an extra point or field goal in a college game. There is some concern there that in-game pressure could get to him. On the other hand, Southern Miss kicker Briggs Bourgeois went 8 of 14 on field goals last season. He was 2 of 6 from 40 yards and longer. DeMario Douglas and Shedro Louis could be the deciding factors in special teams. Douglas has returned a punt for a touchdown in each of the past two seasons, and Louis has come close to breaking a kickoff return for a big gain multiple times. Camron Harrell has a kickoff return touchdown under his belt from 2021, so he does give Southern Miss a potential game-changing returner.

EDGE: Push

Intangibles

Southern Miss is entering Year 2 under Will Hall. He inherited a program that needed a significant amount of work done to reestablish the foundation and get the Golden Eagles back to a winning tradition. That takes time. Liberty has already built the foundation and established a winning culture entering Year 4 under Hugh Freeze. The bulk of the roster knows what it takes to win, especially in hostile environments. The Flames are 6-2 in road games against Group of Five teams since 2019. The only losses came in Louisiana (Lafayette in 2019 and Monroe in 2021), and they are looking for their first win in the state of Mississippi.

EDGE: Liberty

The final thought

Season openers are always challenging to project. You never know what to expect from either side of the ball, especially on offense as that unit works to fix the kinks that come with new faces in skill positions. The new faces on Liberty’s offense have one thing in common: experience. The likes of Charlie Brewer, Dae Dae Hunter, Caleb Snead, Naasir Watkins, Cam Reddy and X’Zauvea Gadlin have played in season openers and know what to expect as offenses seek to find a rhythm. They know to expect the unexpected, understand the ebbs and flows of season openers and how to make adjustments on the fly. Southern Miss isn’t there, just yet. While this game will likely be lower scoring than Vegas projects, Liberty will make enough plays on the offensive end to win their third straight season opener played on the road.

Prediction: Liberty 27, Southern Miss 20